In an AR model of order p, the current output is a
linear combination of the past p outputs plus a white noise input. The
weights on the p past outputs minimize the mean squared prediction error
of the autoregression.
Let y(n) be a wide-sense stationary random process obtained by filtering white
noise of variance e with the system function A(z). If Py(ejω) is the power spectral density of y(n), then
Because the modified covariance method characterizes the input data using an all-pole
model, the correct choice of the model order, p, is important.