Convert VAR model to VEC model
If any of the time series in a vector autoregression (VAR) model are cointegrated, then the VAR model is nonstationary. You can determine the error-correction coefficient by converting the VAR model to a vector error-correction (VEC) model. The error-correction coefficient matrix determines, on average, how the time series react to deviations from their long-run averages. The rank of the error-correction coefficient determines how many cointegrating relations there exist in the model.
Because estimate
is
suitable for estimating VAR models in reduced form, you can convert
an estimated VAR model to its VEC model equivalent using var2vec
.
[
returns the coefficient
matrices (VEC
,C
]
= var2vec(VAR
)VEC
) and the error-correction coefficient
matrix (C
) of the vector error-correction model
equivalent to the vector autoregressive model with coefficient matrices
(VAR
). If the number of lags in the input vector
autoregressive model is p, then the number of lags
in the output vector error-correction model is q = p –
1.
To accommodate structural VAR models, specify the
input argument VAR
as a LagOp
lag operator polynomial.
To access the cell vector of the lag operator polynomial
coefficients of the output argument VEC
, enter toCellArray(VEC)
.
To convert the model coefficients of the output argument from lag operator notation to the model coefficients in difference-equation notation, enter
VECDEN = toCellArray(reflect(VEC));
VECDEN
is
a cell vector containing p coefficients corresponding
to the differenced response terms in VEC.Lags
in
difference-equation notation. The first element is the coefficient
of Δyt, the second
element is the coefficient of Δyt–1,
and so on.Consider converting a VAR(p) model
to a VEC(q) model. If the error-correction coefficient
matrix (C
) has:
Rank zero, then the converted VEC model is a stable VAR(p – 1) model in terms of Δyt.
Full rank, then the VAR(p) model is stable (i.e., has no unit roots) [2].
Rank r, such that 0 < r < n, then the stable VEC model has r cointegrating relations.
The constant offset of the converted VEC model is the same as the constant offset of the VAR model.
var2vec
does not impose stability
requirements on the coefficients. To check for stability, use isStable
.
isStable
requires a LagOp
lag
operator polynomial as an input argument. For example, to check whether VAR
,
the cell array of n
-by-n
numeric
matrices, composes a stable time series, enter
varLagOp = LagOp([eye(n) VAR]); isStable(varLagOp)
A 0
indicates that the polynomial is not
stable.
[1] Hamilton, J. D. Time Series Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994.
[2] Lutkepohl, H. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis." Springer-Verlag, 2007.