Information Criteria

Information Criteria for Model Selection

Compare model fits using information criteria.

Choose ARMA Lags Using BIC

Select ARMA model using information criteria.

Compare Conditional Variance Model Fit Statistics Using Econometric Modeler App

Interactively specify and fit GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR models to data. Then, determine the model that fits to the data the best by comparing fit statistics.

Compare Conditional Variance Models Using Information Criteria

Compare the fits of several conditional variance models using AIC and BIC.

Select Regression Model with ARIMA Errors

Learn how to select an appropriate regression model with ARIMA errors.

Rolling-Window Analysis of Time-Series Models

Estimate explicitly and implicitly defined state-space models using a rolling window.

Choose State-Space Model Specification Using Backtesting

Choose the state-space model specification with the best predictive performance using a rolling window.

Statistical Tests

Model Comparison Tests

Learn the mechanics behind the likelihood ratio, Lagrange multiplier, and Wald model-comparison tests.

Compare GARCH Models Using Likelihood Ratio Test

Conduct a likelihood ratio test to choose the number of lags in a GARCH model.

Likelihood Ratio Test for Conditional Variance Models

Fit two competing, conditional variance models to data, and then compare their fits using a likelihood ratio test.

Conduct Lagrange Multiplier Test

Compare the fit of a restricted model against an unrestricted model by testing whether the gradient of the loglikelihood function of the unrestricted model, evaluated at the restricted maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs), is significantly different from zero.

Conduct Wald Test

Compare the fit of a restricted model against an unrestricted model by testing whether the restriction function, evaluated at the unrestricted maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs), is significantly different from zero.

Classical Model Misspecification Tests

This example shows the use of the likelihood ratio, Wald, and Lagrange multiplier tests.

Convert Between Models

Convert VARMA Model to VAR Model

Create a VARMA model, and then convert it to a pure VAR model.